RosenbergIfTheOilRunsOut

If the Oil Runs Out

The film // If the Oil Runs Out //, released in 2006 and directed by Bren Simson, depicts the potential implications of a future global oil shock occurring in 2016. Drawing from concerns regarding the scarcity of fossil fuel resources, and the environmental implications of the extraction of such, the piece strives to serve as a frightening yet realistic portrayal of how significant of adaption may be required to wean ourselves off of the reliance on oil, and how ill-prepared the modern society is to undertake such an ambition. Through the juxtaposition of engineers and executives of the fictional Anglo-International Oil corporation with regular citizens of Minneapolis, MN, the film argues for both the drastic changes in population demographics and lifestyle required to preserve the economic standard of living of citizens of the “post-oil” world, as well as the uncertainty surrounding future prospecting in the industry and the hubris of industry officials in carrying out such operations.

In particular, stakeholders in the future of oil are shown to comprise diverse scales and motives. From the financial perspective, corporations such as Anglo-International Oil and cartels such as OPEC are interested in capitalizing on the scarcity of supply to undertake drilling and extraction with the purpose of attaining extensive profits. Similarly, national governments such as that of the United States are depicted as being immensely concerned with maintaining economic security for the nation, which at one point involves conceived tensions between the United States and Venezuela over securing access to oil pipelines in the Americas. However, contrasted with such is the microeconomic perspective, represented in the film by individuals such as John and Jeanie Parker. As a result of rising gasoline prices, as well as a financial inability to adapt to the morphing economic climate, John is driven to hoard diesel fuel in his garage and carpool with his neighbors to shop at Walmart, in addition to engaging in other dangerous practices such as a physical altercation at a gasoline station which leaves him severely injured and unable to care for himself. Beyond those in the United States, the film also includes mention of the industrialization of Chinese and Indian regions, and the inherent rise of a middle class associated with reliance on cheaper fossil fuels for the purpose of development.

As a central portion of the film, the reliance of modern societies on oil is represented as a primary factor behind the struggles and hardships resulting from the supply and price shocks. The most major of these influences is considered to be through the sector of transportation, in which both individuals and corporations rely on gasoline powered vehicles to deliver goods and services to locations around the world. Retailers have often been stocked with cheaper goods from locations as far away as Southeast Asia, and supermarkets have capitalized on low shipping costs to stock shelves with a wide variety of foods which in the past were only seasonal in nature, in a practice commonly termed “Permanent Global Summertime.” In addition, oil based fuels are utilized to heat homes in the winter, as well as to power household appliances such as lawnmowers and snow blowers. However, the dependence on oil conveyed in the film goes beyond economic factors. Corporations in the oil industry often have strong political ties to national governments, which in turn are obligated to protect these interests both domestically and abroad. Social factors, such as a reluctance to adapt to newer technologies such as hybrid or electric cars which require some sacrifice of lifestyle, have further reinforced the role of oil in communities. Last, historical and cultural considerations, such as the prevalence of gasoline stations and the glorification of the freedom of driving have fostered attitudes which build the complacency necessary to continue to rely on oil based fuels as supplies dwindle.

As a result of these deep ties to oil within societies, the film raises some principle concerns caused by this dependency. As mentioned previously, international conflict often results from natural resource deliberation, and the film emphasizes the loss of autonomy and influence to countries such as Venezuela and institutions such as OPEC in light of oil crisis. Additionally, supply shortages were depicted as causing substantial hardships in the lives of ordinary citizens, ranging from long lines at gasoline stations, to a breakdown of order resulting in gasoline theft and the inability to maintain flexibility of employment farther away from home. From an economic perspective, these hardships are suggested to extend to employment, in which trucking companies and related businesses may be required to lay off workers in efforts to downsize their fleets and reduce costs. Dietary factors are shown to be the last major hardship raised by these shocks, in which consumers are forced to purchase a lower diversity and quantity of food to account for the inability of corporations to ship items across as great an expanse of distance.

Despite advances in developing renewable energy sources over the last decade, the film paints a bleak portrait of a world in which there are few substitutes to oil readily available. In this sense, it is suggested that a shift away from oil would require a drastic social reorganization, beginning with the localization of commercial processes and ultimately progressing to more compact communities located within urban regions. Although some forms of traditional transportation may be preserved, it is suggested that it would only be in a manner of car sharing or through the replacement of large vehicles such as SUV’s with more fuel efficient vehicles. These activities would inevitably require a fostering of collective and community values, which would represent a noteworthy departure from more recent attitude of individualism.

Of the elements comprising the film, that which was found to be most compelling was the depiction of the sharp lifestyle changes resulting from cutting down on the usage of personal vehicles. Coming from a suburb located on Long Island, it would be difficult to imagine navigating the community and carrying out the activities of sustenance in the event that it suddenly became too expensive to freely drive through the town. The closest supermarket would be a fifteen minute walk each way from my home, and the quantity of food purchased would have to be substantially reduced to permit one or two people to carry it across that expanse. In similar fashion to what was referenced previously, my family has only a light amount of interaction with our neighbors, which barely extends beyond pleasantries and emergency phone numbers. Additionally, our high school is located on one of the edges of the community, which is at minimum a one to two hour walk for those living near the most extreme reaches of the school district. With the lack of a reliable infrastructure of public busses, it is hard to imagine that suburban life could be sustained in the event that transportation was not feasible or readily available.

On the other hand, I was notably unimpressed by the figures for an oil shock presented throughout the course of the film. As the scenario progressed, oil had risen to the price of $160 per barrel, and gasoline approached $4.59 per gallon in Minneapolis. It was then suggested that such a figure was substantial enough to incite long term behavioral changes amongst the populace; However, prices reached similar levels in this region as recently as 2008, and these types of changes did not occur to anywhere near the extent depicted in the narrative. Although one had to be somewhat more wary of their fuel expenses, the use of motor vehicles has become ingrained within the culture, and it is difficult to alter this behavior through short term price incentives. Since such prices were even lower than those currently experienced in Europe and California, it is clear that though hardships, they are tolerable within the context of the present standard of living. As soon as gas prices collapsed in the aftermath of the recent recession, citizens returned to their previous habits, and the calls for alternative fuel sources and lifestyle changes went unheeded.

I was also disappointed by the lack of emphasis placed on the pollution concerns generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. As cities such as Shanghai have demonstrated, an increase in automobiles is often accompanied by harsh negative externalities such as diminished air quality, which lower the quality of life for residents, as well as those in nearby provinces. Since this represents an equally strong incentive to wean ourselves off of oil, it was a crucial omission on the part of the producers of the film to gloss over these features of the debate.

Besides the return to more compact and localized communities and the lifestyle changes described above, the film seems resigned to the inevitability of oil related social collapse. However, in light of the advances in renewable energy technologies in recent years, it seems likely that much of this crisis may be averted if a more gradual evolution of our energy consumption habits was allowed to occur. These alterations may include the construction of additional nuclear plants and solar farms, in addition to education necessary to reduce the social stigmas surrounding the meltdowns of Chernobyl and Three Mile Island. Beyond simply utilizing the existing technologies, it will be necessary for governments to take initiative in funding research and development, as well as providing economic incentives such as subsidies and tax credits for adopting cleaner energy sources. Perhaps if these actions fail, it may be necessary to willingly reduce consumption to earlier periods of industrialization, such as through sacrifices of household appliances which consume electricity as well as the increased usage of bicycles and public transportation. Although often considered a radical approach, it may be beneficial to adopt the precedent of the One Child Policy in newly industrializing economies, since limiting population growth in these growing consumers would likely reduce pressures on resources and employment which undermine the global standard of living. While solutions to these problems are likely to be varied in effectiveness and social acceptance, it will be necessary to be creative in order to resolve these complex issues. In light of the perspectives of the film, I was compelled to seek out additional information concerning oil prices in other countries, as well as current estimates of the duration of the global supply of oil to ascertain the time horizon of the concerns presented in the film. The following sources were useful in answering some of these questions:

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In the first of these sources, various reports are cited which provide outlooks regarding the future of oil economics. It is suggested in the U.S. Department of Defense Joint Operating Environment report that the shortfall in oil production will reach 10 million barrels per day by 2015 (which is stated to be 25% more than the production of Saudi Arabia), while IEA projections suggest that this shortfall may reach as much as 75 million barrels per day by 2035. This suggests that as in the film, the consequences of our reliance on oil may soon be felt in primary consumers such as the United States.

In the second of these sources, a figure is presented from the European Commission which depicts the progression of Weekly Retail Premium Motor Gasoline Prices in European nations over the 13 month period from March of 2009 through March of 2010, with the United States provided as a reference at the bottom of the graph. Over this period, gasoline prices were as much as three times those of the United States in nations such as France and Germany, which demonstrates how the societies have been pressured to modify behavior in the ways commonly depicted in popular culture. With more strongly developed and utilized networks of high speed railroad, as well as the reduction of barriers to commerce fostered by the European Union, it has been easier for citizens as well as regions to adapt to the changes brought forth by the impending resource crisis in the oil sector. Perhaps this history suggests that price incentives may indeed be part of the package of powerful deterrents necessary to reduce the reliance on oil based fuels in the coming years.